Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 8.455142e-05 0.000100 0.000118 0.000137 0.000159 0.000182 0.000208
2025-01-12 6.100270e-05 0.000081 0.000105 0.000133 0.000166 0.000203 0.000247
2025-01-19 5.159371e-05 0.000074 0.000101 0.000136 0.000177 0.000224 0.000282
2025-01-26 3.992805e-05 0.000063 0.000092 0.000130 0.000178 0.000235 0.000305
2025-02-02 3.399530e-05 0.000058 0.000089 0.000131 0.000186 0.000251 0.000334
2025-02-09 2.815884e-05 0.000052 0.000084 0.000130 0.000190 0.000264 0.000359
2025-02-16 2.541973e-05 0.000050 0.000085 0.000135 0.000202 0.000285 0.000394
2025-02-23 2.200401e-05 0.000046 0.000083 0.000136 0.000209 0.000301 0.000423
2025-03-02 1.745752e-05 0.000040 0.000076 0.000131 0.000207 0.000305 0.000436
2025-03-09 1.424696e-05 0.000036 0.000072 0.000128 0.000208 0.000312 0.000453
2025-03-16 1.195716e-05 0.000033 0.000069 0.000127 0.000211 0.000323 0.000475
2025-03-23 1.031107e-05 0.000031 0.000068 0.000128 0.000217 0.000336 0.000500
2025-03-30 8.191907e-06 0.000028 0.000065 0.000127 0.000220 0.000347 0.000524
2025-04-06 6.088897e-06 0.000024 0.000060 0.000123 0.000220 0.000354 0.000542
2025-04-13 5.174657e-06 0.000023 0.000059 0.000125 0.000229 0.000372 0.000577
2025-04-20 3.630011e-06 0.000019 0.000055 0.000120 0.000226 0.000375 0.000590
2025-04-27 2.911764e-06 0.000018 0.000053 0.000121 0.000232 0.000390 0.000619
2025-05-04 2.180108e-06 0.000016 0.000051 0.000120 0.000235 0.000400 0.000642
2025-05-11 1.914043e-06 0.000016 0.000052 0.000125 0.000246 0.000423 0.000683
2025-05-18 1.510580e-06 0.000015 0.000051 0.000126 0.000253 0.000439 0.000713
2025-05-25 9.283289e-07 0.000012 0.000047 0.000121 0.000249 0.000439 0.000723
2025-06-01 5.890230e-07 0.000011 0.000044 0.000118 0.000249 0.000446 0.000741
2025-06-08 3.856482e-07 0.000010 0.000042 0.000118 0.000252 0.000456 0.000764